Continental Chessboard: The New Order in African Geopolitics

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In the Name of Allah---the Most Beneficent, the Most Merciful.

As of 2025, African geopolitics is shaped by a mix of internal dynamics, regional alliances, military coups, and the strategic interests of global powers like China, the US, Russia, and the EU. Below is a broad overview of the major alliances and rivalries currently influencing the continent:

General Political Trends

  1. Rise of Military Governments:
    • Since 2020, several countries have experienced military coups: Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Niger, and Gabon.
    • These juntas often claim to fight corruption, terrorism, or neo-colonial influence, especially French.
  2. Democracy vs Authoritarianism:
    • Some states remain democracies (e.g., Kenya, Ghana, Senegal), while others have drifted toward authoritarian rule (Rwanda, Uganda, Egypt, Eritrea).
    • Electoral processes are often disputed, especially in fragile democracies like Nigeria, Zimbabwe, and DR Congo.
  3. Pan-Africanism Resurgence:
    • A younger generation of leaders and citizens is reviving Pan-African rhetoric, often opposing foreign military bases and neo-colonial economic control.

Major Regional Alliances

  1. ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States):
    • Members: Nigeria, Ghana, Senegal, Côte d’Ivoire, etc.
    • Mission: Promote democracy, integration, economic growth.
    • Rivalry: Faces strong resistance from coup-led states like Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, who have suspended or quit the bloc.
  2. AES Alliance (Alliance of Sahel States):
    • Formed in 2023 by Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso.
    • Anti-French, pro-sovereignty, and increasingly aligned with Russia.
    • They rejected ECOWAS sanctions and cooperate on defense and security.
  3. East African Community (EAC):
    • Members: Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, South Sudan, DRC, Burundi, Somalia (joining).
    • Goal: Political federation and economic integration.
    • Tensions: Rwanda-DRC (due to M23 rebel issues), Uganda-Kenya trade spats.
  4. SADC (Southern African Development Community):
    • Includes: South Africa, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Angola, etc.
    • More stable but struggling with political issues in Zimbabwe and security problems in northern Mozambique.
  5. IGAD (Intergovernmental Authority on Development):
    • Focuses on Horn of Africa (Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan, Kenya, etc.).
    • Challenge: Regional conflicts (Sudan civil war, Somali instability, Ethiopia-Eritrea tensions).

Major Rivalries

  1. West Africa: ECOWAS vs. AES:
    • ECOWAS, led by Nigeria, is under pressure after failing to restore democracy in Niger.
    • AES blames ECOWAS for being a puppet of France and the West.
  2. Horn of Africa Tensions:
    • Ethiopia vs. Egypt/Sudan over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and control of Nile waters.
    • Sudan Civil War (RSF vs SAF) destabilizes neighbors.
  3. DR Congo vs Rwanda:
    • DRC accuses Rwanda of backing M23 rebels in eastern Congo.
    • A proxy conflict over minerals and regional dominance.
  4. Morocco vs. Algeria:
    • Rooted in the Western Sahara dispute.
    • Algeria backs the Polisario Front, while Morocco claims the territory.
    • Borders remain closed; diplomatic relations severed.

Global Powers and Influence

  1. Russia:
    • Growing influence via Wagner Group and military deals (especially in AES countries and CAR).
    • Seen as an alternative to Western influence.
  2. China:
    • Focused on economic influence: infrastructure, loans, and trade.
    • Maintains a neutral political stance but heavily invested across Africa.
  3. France:
    • Losing ground due to anti-French sentiment, especially in former colonies.
    • Forced to withdraw troops from Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger.
  4. United States:
    • Focused on counterterrorism, democracy promotion, and countering Russian/Chinese influence.
    • Presence in the Sahel is being recalibrated.
  5. Turkey, UAE, Saudi Arabia:
    • Competing in the Horn and North Africa through ports, mosques, and business ties.
    • Turkey is also active in Somalia and Libya.

Summary Table

RegionMajor Alliance(s)Key Rivalries
West AfricaECOWAS vs AESAES vs ECOWAS; coups vs democracies
Central AfricaECCAS (weaker)DRC vs Rwanda (M23 conflict)
East AfricaEAC, IGADEthiopia vs Egypt (Nile); DRC vs EAC
North AfricaArab Maghreb Union (inactive)Morocco vs Algeria (W. Sahara)
Southern AfricaSADCZimbabwe instability; Cabo Delgado
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